Introduction

This analysis explores the relationships of agricultural commodity loss, at a county level, from 1989-2015, for the 26 county region of the Palouse, in Washington, Idaho, and Oregon. Here we explore the entire range of commodities and damage causes, identifying the top revenue loss commodities and their most pertinent damage causes - as indicated from the USDA’s agricultural commodity loss insurance archive.

We perform several steps to examine the full set of data, and to narrow down factors to a usable form, for mixed modeling analysis.

Step 1. Data Preparation: Loading and Transforming data. Here we load commodity loss data, and aggregate by differing factors, so we can examine losses on an annual basis, by county, damage cause, and commodity.

Step 2. Study Area Overview. We narrow down our data to the 26 county palouse region, and display a study area map for perspective.

Step 3. Step 3: Palouse Region Overview of Insurance Loss FREQUENCY by Year: 1989-2015

Step 4. Palouse Region Overview of Insurance Loss ($) by Year: 1989-2015 We summarize all insurance loss by year for 1989 - 2015 - so we can then subset our analysis to a refined time period (2001-2015).

Step 5. Palouse Region Overview of Insurance Loss by Commodity: 1989-2015 We summarize all commodity insurance loss for the Palouse by commodity - so we can determine the top insurance loss commodities for a filtered examination.

Step 6. Palouse Region Overiew of Insurance Loss by Damage Cause: 1989-2015. Similarly to Step 3, we summarize all insurance loss by the cause of the damage for 1989 - 2015, so we can determine which damage causes are resulting the the majority of insurance loss.

Step 7. Palouse Region Overview of Insurance Loss by Commodity: 2001 - 2015. Given our previous steps, we now examine Palouse commodity insurance loss for 2001 - 2015.

Step 8. Palouse Region Overiew of Insurance Loss by Damage Cause: 2001-2015. In step 8, we examine Palouse commodities by damage cause for 2001-2015.

Step 9. Top five commodities, 2001-2015 for the Palouse Region. In step 9, we examine the Palouse top five commodities for 2001-2015 (apples, wheat, cherries, dry peas, and barley).

Step 1. Data Preparation: Loading and Transformation data

The first step is to load Pacific Northwest agricultural insurance commodity loss data, aggregate by county, damage cause and commodity, remove zeros, transform the loss values ($) into cube root and logrithmic outputs, and scale and center the data.


Step 2: Study Area Overview - 26 County Palouse Region

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Step 3: Palouse Region Overview of Insurance Loss FREQUENCY by Year: 1989-2015

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Step 4: Palouse Region Overview of Insurance Loss ($) by Year: 1989-2015

Palouse region total insurance loss by year, 1989-2015
1989-2002   2003-2015
year loss   year loss
1989 $5,652,825   2003 $21,109,545
1990 $3,074,835   2004 $12,998,644
1991 $6,068,458   2005 $12,788,278
1992 $5,839,393   2006 $30,324,667
1993 $2,146,618   2007 $16,467,783
1994 $2,517,075   2008 $29,831,962
1995 $3,444,298   2009 $83,938,587
1996 $4,058,897   2010 $21,891,520
1997 $2,709,708   2011 $21,805,475
1998 $5,555,261   2012 $22,784,749
1999 $10,871,008   2013 $46,974,517
2000 $8,851,377   2014 $42,783,974
2001 $14,998,851   2015 $64,099,796
2002 $16,291,307  

Step 5: Palouse Region Overview of Insurance Loss by Commodity: 1989-2015

Palouse region total insurance loss by commodity, 1989-2015
1989-2015
commodity loss
WHEAT $254,010,047
APPLES $64,956,988
CHERRIES $35,551,186
DRY PEAS $22,102,608
BARLEY $16,105,809
POTATOES $15,428,178
All Other Crops $14,349,609
GRAPES $13,720,003
GREEN PEAS $10,189,784

STEP 6: Palouse Region Overiew of Insurance Loss by Damage Cause: 1989-2015

1989-2015
commodity loss
Drought $106,708,023
Heat $80,390,796
Hail $61,074,897
Decline in Price $59,025,877
Freeze $48,831,422
Frost $47,923,085
Excessive Moisture $32,471,220
Cold Wet Weather $26,750,663
Cold Winter $14,605,088
Wind/Excess Wind $10,923,474

Step 7: Palouse Region Overview of Insurance Loss by Commodity: 2001 - 2015

Palouse region total insurance loss by commodity, 2001-2015
2001-2015
commodity loss
WHEAT $228,816,855
APPLES $58,222,389
CHERRIES $34,532,042
DRY PEAS $19,914,071
BARLEY $14,207,293
GRAPES $10,185,694
GREEN PEAS $8,919,631
All Other Crops $8,529,647
POTATOES $8,110,272

STEP 8: Palouse Region Overiew of Insurance Loss by Damage Cause: 2001-2015

2001-2015
commodity loss
Drought $93,547,897
Heat $71,888,481
Decline in Price $56,870,659
Hail $55,917,494
Frost $42,830,336
Freeze $38,624,765
Excessive Moisture $29,875,643
Cold Wet Weather $24,100,479
Cold Winter $11,976,394


STEP 9: Damage Cause Overview for EACH of the four top commodities


Top Damage Causes for APPLES, 2001-2015 for the Palouse Region


2001-2015
damagecause loss
Hail $29,413,302
Frost $9,383,073
Freeze $7,896,729
Cold Wet Weather $5,919,295
Wind/Excess Wind $1,988,685
Other $1,871,622
Heat $1,749,682

Top Damage Causes for BARLEY, 2001-2015 for the Palouse Region


2001-2015
damagecause loss
Drought $5,845,767
Heat $2,472,242
Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain $1,941,343
Hail $1,080,580
Frost $1,000,315
Other $975,706
Decline in Price $492,966
Cold Wet Weather $398,374
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Top Damage Causes for WHEAT, 2001-2015 for the Palouse Region

2001-2015
damagecause loss
Drought $78,031,258
Heat $42,385,702
Decline in Price $41,243,758
Frost $15,699,389
Hail $10,869,572
Other $9,293,806
Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain $8,651,321
Freeze $8,370,226
Cold Winter $7,646,897
Cold Wet Weather $6,624,926
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Top Damage Causes for CHERRIES, 2001-2015 for the Palouse Region

2001-2015
damagecause loss
Excessive Moisture $9,542,449
Freeze $7,197,374
Frost $6,604,340
Cold Wet Weather $3,037,060
Other $2,246,565
Hail $1,787,072
Decline in Price $1,710,420
Heat $1,365,040
Wind/Excess Wind $1,041,721
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Top Damage Causes for DRY PEAS, 2001-2015 for the Palouse Region

2001-2015
damagecause loss
Drought $4,994,005
Heat $4,472,345
Excessive Moisture $3,088,967
Hail $2,754,654
Other $1,439,128
Cold Wet Weather $942,659
Decline in Price $822,851
Wind/Excess Wind $774,723
Frost $624,739
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